ARBISMART
Polymarket arbitrage, with the books open
Built to arbitrage prediction markets on Polygon. Every figure on this page is read from the contract at this block — including the ones that do not flatter us. The owner cannot change a rate, cannot touch your principal, and cannot stop you leaving.
The strategy is not trading yet — realized profit is 0, and today's yield is paid from capital, not from earnings. Why, and the arithmetic behind it
Protocol at a glance
Total value locked
Liquid plus deployed, after unswept fees
Principal staked
Across all active positions
Paid out to stakers
Lifetime yield claimed
Strategy capital deployed
No open positions
Every staked dollar is liquid right now, with nothing committed to a position. The contract can commit at most — USDT (20% of assets); the rest can never leave the withdrawal buffer.
Where the money sits
12–5% deposit fee- Gross deposits received
- — USDT
- Development & promotion fees
- — USDT
- Recorded as user stakes
- — USDT
- Liquid in the main pool
- — USDT
- Deployed to strategy
- — USDT
The deposit fee falls with size — 12% under 500 USDT, 5% from 10,000 — and the exact split is shown before you sign. Fees are counted separately and subtracted from total assets, so fee income never gets mistaken for pool capital or withdrawn as though it were.
Growth target
A target we're working toward before the next major update — not today's balance. Today's figure is real, read live from the same contract call as the stats above.
Total value locked today
—USDT
Total ever deposited
—USDT
Goal
$15,000,000
Under 0.1% of the way there — early days.
Platform updates
Market news
Four steps, nobody in between
Going from a cold wallet to an open position takes a few minutes. Getting back out works the same way.
Connect a wallet
Works with MetaMask, Trust, Rainbow, or anything that speaks WalletConnect. There is no signup and no email. The contract only ever sees your address.
Check the numbers, then deposit
Before you sign, the deposit screen shows what leaves your wallet, what the fee is, and what gets recorded as your stake.
Yield builds every second
Rewards build against the stake the contract recorded and stop when the term ends. You do not have to claim anything to keep earning.
Claim or leave when you want
Claim your yield any time. Leaving early costs a penalty that drops each week and stops at 10%. Neither one needs our approval.
Rewards programme
Real gold for the team you build
Nine tiers, a gram to a full kilo, measured on your whole team three levels deep — a number the contract already tracks. Thresholds and round dates are still being finalised, but your team volume is being recorded today, whatever they turn out to be.
The owner cannot touch your principal
The code running on Polygon has no function that sends staked principal to a wallet. It is not a rule we promise to follow. The option is simply not there.
- No withdrawal path to an owner wallet
- Fee rates were fixed at deployment and cannot be raised
- A blocked address can still withdraw
Capital deployment with a hard ceiling
No more than 20% of assets can sit in a market position. The cap counts everything already deployed, so splitting one deployment into several does not get around it. The rest stays liquid for withdrawals.
- 20% ceiling, checked on every deployment
- Every swap has a slippage limit in the contract
- Profit counts only once it settles back in USDT
Open to anyone, anywhere
It runs on Polygon and works from any wallet. No countries are blocked, there are no opening hours, and nobody stands between you and your position.
- Polygon mainnet, with low fees and fast confirmation
- Any wallet that supports WalletConnect
- Every action is a public transaction
The numbers come from the chain
Every figure on this site is read from the contract as the page loads. There is no database behind it, so there is nothing that can quietly go stale or be edited.
- Read live at the current block
- History rebuilt from on-chain events
- Your returns calculated from your own claims
Built on standards
Ordinary ERC-20 collateral, ordinary wallet connections, and a published interface. Any tool that can read Polygon can read this.
- USDT on Polygon
- Public ABI and verified source
- Uses Polymarket's Conditional Tokens directly
The source is published and verified
The code running on Polygon matches the published source exactly. Sourcify checked that, not us. You can read the whole thing before you deposit anything.
- Exact bytecode match on both creation and runtime code
- Partners can freeze the protocol without the owner
- Bug bounty with published payouts
Watching Polymarket, live
A read-only scanner — no keys, cannot place an order — checks every active two-outcome market's order book for a complete set priced under a dollar, against real depth and each market's own fee schedule. It runs on a timer and this is its last pass, not a summary written after the fact.
The order books the strategy watches
Live prices from Polymarket's public API. These are the markets the strategy watches for mispriced YES/NO pairs. They are not the protocol's open positions, just the market data behind it.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes
36.5%
24h vol
$2.0M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes
62.5%
24h vol
$1.7M
Will AS Roma win on 2026-09-10?
Yes
41.5%
24h vol
$1.4M
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-09-10?
Yes
2.8%
24h vol
$1.0M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes
0.9%
24h vol
$951K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes
0.4%
24h vol
$725K
Source: Polymarket's public Gamma API, refreshed every couple of minutes. The prices are implied probabilities from the live order book, and none of this is a recommendation.
Four tiers, one set of rules
Bigger deposits earn a higher daily rate over a shorter term. Your tier comes from the stake the contract records, which is your deposit minus the fee, so the amount you need to send is a little above the tier minimum.
Starter
1.20%/day
Growth
1.80%/day
Advanced
2.40%/day
Elite
Top tier3.00%/day
Deposit fee
Charged once, before the stake is recorded. It falls as the deposit grows, so the figures below are what reaches your position.
0–499
12%
500–2,499
10%
2,500–9,999
7%
10,000+
5%
Claiming carries a separate fee of 10%, halved to 5% on Advanced and Elite.
Referral tiers
Paid from the pool each time the person you referred claims, down three levels. Their own payout is not reduced.
Exit penalty schedule
Applies to your principal only, and drops every week until it settles at 10%. You can exit at any point on this curve.
Work out the real numbers
No wallet needed. Every figure below comes from the contract itself, including the fee that comes off the top and what leaving early would cost you.
What a deposit buys
Read live from the contract. The entry fee comes off before your stake is recorded, so the amount you send is not the amount you earn on.
Common questions
Including the ones where the answer is not what you were hoping for.
It depends on size, and it falls as the deposit grows: 12% under 500 USDT, 10% from 500, 7% from 2,500, and 5% from 10,000. It comes off before your stake is recorded, so 1,000 USDT in means 900 USDT staked. That also moves the floor — the smallest stake the contract accepts is 10 USDT, so the smallest deposit is 11.37. The deposit screen shows the exact split before you sign, and the schedule is fixed in the contract with no function to change it.
No. Nothing in the contract sends staked principal to an owner address — and the owner address itself receives nothing at all. Fees go to four named wallets: the deposit fee, a claim fee of 10% (5% on the two upper plans), and a capped share of strategy profit. That is the whole list. The one path that can move pooled funds needs 3 of 5 partner votes and then a 48-hour wait, and your own penalty-free withdrawal opens 36 hours before that wait is over.
You can leave whenever you want and nobody has to approve it. The penalty is 50% in the first week and falls each week until it settles at 10% from week five. It only applies to your principal. Anything you have not claimed is lost when you exit, so claim first.
No. They are settings in the contract, not a promise. Yield is paid out of the pool, and over time it has to be covered by money the strategy actually makes. No smart contract can create a return that was not earned somewhere. Treat the rates as today's terms rather than a forecast, and decide how much to deposit on that basis.
Each time someone you referred claims their yield, a share of that claim goes up the chain: 8% to 20% to you depending on your tier, 4% to 10% to whoever referred you, and 2% to 5% one level above that. It is taken out of the claim rather than added on top, so the pool never pays out more than the yield that was actually earned. Your link only counts if you already have an active stake when they stake, and you keep earning only while that stake stays open.
The full source is published and verified against the deployed bytecode on Sourcify, and you can read it on PolygonScan or Blockscout. Every number on this site comes from that contract. The security page also lists what is weak about it, not just what is strong.
Check it yourself before you decide.
Everything on this page can be checked against the code running on Polygon. Read the source, read the known limitations, then decide how much to put in.
Weekly numbers with an explorer link under each one. The only official channel is @arbhub_site.